Political Nanny : poll

And Then There Were 5: Another Candidate Waves Bye-Bye

Madeline Holler — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 17:35:00 GMT

[UPDATE BELOW] Another candidate has thrown in his teddy bear bath towel and will withdraw from the rugrat election race.

He hasn't made it official yet, but advisers to the once very likely GOP nominee are confirming that former Massachussetts governor Mitt Romney will announce Thursday that he is ending his presidential election campaign. He's expected to make the announcement when he address conservatives at a convention Thursday afternoon.

Romney takes with him his five sons, loads of grandkids, his lovely wife and a much lighter personal fortune. Leading up to the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, he had spent more than $35 of his own money to keep his campaign afloat.

More details as we get them. In the meantime, Political Nanny will pack up his change of clothes and favorite playthings and prepare for another good-bye. We suppose Huckabee was correct Tuesday night when he said it's now a two-man race over on the GOP side (sorry, Ron Paul).

It's now John McCain's nomination to lose. With more room in the sandbox, the rest of them win!

[UPDATE] Romney told a shocked audience of conservatives his reasons for abandoning his presidential dreams. In summary, Iraq:

“in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.

“Barack and Hillary have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror. They would retreat and declare defeat,” said Romney.

“And the consequence of that would be devastating. It would mean attacks on America, launched from safe havens that make Afghanistan under the Taliban look like child’s play. About this, I have no doubt.”

Others, like Brian at DailyScanner, see it as a postponement of the Apocolypse.

What's your take? Good news? Bad news? If Mitt was your guy, who will you support now?

via Politico

Good Enough Wednesday: Some Thoughts

Madeline Holler — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 13:25:00 GMT

Oh, sweet Mitt. Mitt, Mitt, Mitt. Super Tuesday? Not so super for you, Mitt. If you're planning a very special speech today, know that Political Nanny always liked you second best among the GOP. But if you're planning on burning through another 10 acres of stacked 20s from your own personal fortune, she'll think you're crazy, yet love you more than ever. Let's hope post Super Tuesday is a good-enough Wednesday for you.

And Mike! Southern voters hearted Huckabee! Sure, the West Viriginia win feels kind of disingenuous, but you take what you can get, right? Any chance you're going to turn this around and kick John McCain in the teeth? Because you are knocking them off, one-by-one.

John ... well played. That West Virginia move was slick. The rest of your wins obviously earned. Your own political surge is working.

Hillary and Barack ... this is exactly where you need to be. Tied. A continued battle. It's too soon to know. Wait! A reversal! Obama wins Missouri, not Clinton. Oops, it's still pretty close. She's got more delegates, he's got more states. She's got the old white ladies, he's got the young and the beautiful in every color and creed.

(Question: When you're George W. Bush -- or any Bush -- and you see all this "energizing" and "calls for change" and record number of voters, do you feel in any way embarassed for having created such a fuss?)

Ron Paul, you'll take (second in) Montana -- your best showing. There's a fire in this nation ...

Some extras:

Whenever reporters said "delegate-rich California," did anybody else start craving cake with a delicious, calorie-rich buttercream frosting?

Damn kids! Arnold Schwarzenegger's 18-year-old daughter followed mom Maria Shriver's endorsement, not the governor's, and voted for Barack Obama. (And wore a T-shirt in case there were any questions.)

From The Root, an African-American woman confesses that, even though she's a big ol' lefty, she's nominating Condoleeza Rice as her candidate for president. After all, the fact that a woman might vote for Obama or an AfricanAmerican might vote for Hillary Clinton just boggles the mind of pollsters and the press. However do these women make up their minds! Last night over on ABC, Sam Donaldson (who needs to hang up his toupee and retire from live broadcasting) asked, incredulously, what's a black woman to do?

Predictions ... not so easy. Even estimated bedtimes were off. No sooner were folks at CNN shaking their heads saying, "this'll be a late one ... results from delgate-rich California won't be ready until the wee hours ..." when 5 minutes later, after retrieving a pack of Little Debbie Swiss Rolls, Political Nanny noticed they called the Golden State for Clinton and McCain.

Finally, a note to John Edwards. We all know who you're going to endorse. Now that Super Tuesday is over, just come out and say it.

We'll continue licking the bowl of this delicious election throughout the day, here at Political Nanny.

Hillary: Send Me to Prison

Madeline Holler — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 19:33:00 GMT

Hillary Clinton said in an interview that her dream would be to compete on America's Next Top Model. She admits, though, she wouldn't have much of a chance. Now, Political Nanny doesn't like to traffic in the superficial, but, since Hillary brought it up? Yeah, not a chance.

However, the former first lady and presidential hopeful thinks she could go all the way as a contestant on Dancing With the Stars, and we don't see why not. Especially, as she says, if she gets one of the really good pros. (Oh, but not if Barack Obama is one of her competitors. In that competition? He'd be ready to lead his rhumba partner on Day 1.)

Clinton tackled these and other difficult topics with Tyra Banks earlier this week in a taping for Bank's eponymous talk show. Her interview airs Friday (check for local times ... or check in with Political Nanny, who vows to set up the Political Nanny Cam and bring the video to you.)

Other interesting tidbits: Clinton likened the White House to a prison. Some outtakes (thanks L.A. Times Top of the Ticket):

"Do you ever get lonely?" Banks asked the New York senator. "Do you ever sit in your room by yourself sometimes and just feel alone?"....

"I don't feel lonely," Clinton said. "But I do feel sometimes isolated. Because when you are in these positions that I have been in, it can be very isolating. It is one of the reasons I put on the dark glasses and the baseball cap and go out of the White House. President Harry Truman once said that the White House was like the crown jewel of the American penal system because you can feel confined."

The two also talked about what Bill Clinton should be called if he winds up the First Spouse, and whether she -- remember, future Dancing with the Stars hopeful -- does hip hop or knows the Soulja Boy or the Spongebob dance.

Well what did you expect? Oprah?

Elsewhere on Political Nanny's Playground ...

Club Dem Refuses Race Bait, One Calls Bush 'Pathetic', and Island Survival Strategies

The Democratic candidates clobbered not each other in the debates last night but two of the reps from the media. Brian Williams and Tim Russert tried hard to keep racial discord alive in their early round of questions for Clinton and Obama. But the candidates refused to be baited, bragged on the Democratic party, blah, blah. They defended each other, for example, against how their statements had been reported in the media (Barack on Russert's claim that last night's pledge to take troops out of Iraq was a change from earlier refusals to make such a pledge). They offered excuses for insinuating racism and claims of misusing historic icons being brought up in the first place. (Clinton: “We both have exuberant and sometimes uncontrollable supporters ...”)

Sure, the debate was something of a snoozer (though Political Nanny perked up when Hillary Clinton described Bush, on his trip to Saudi Arabia, as "pathetic" and "begging for lower oil prices.") The questions got so banal that toward the end candidates were asked their strengths and weaknesses. Strengths and weaknesses? Even a teenager looking for work at a video store knows how to answer that one. "I refuse to stop working until the job is done" (Clinton gave her version of that) ... I've been told I'm committed to a fault!" (Edward's take on this "weakness" classic.) Political Nanny was fully expecting them to have to tell Russert the one item they'd like to have with them if they were ever stranded on a deserted island. (A book on shipbuilding, of course!) Mercifully, there was a commercial break.

Michigan

Mitt Romney stays in the GOP race, winning 39 percent of the Republican vote in his boyhood state of Michigan. Headlines 'round the nation say this win, Romney's first, and yet another candidate with a first-place finish in these early states, "scrambles the GOP field." McCain came in second with 30 percent of the vote. Political Nanny's glad these candidates will push on for more of the statewide contests.

Also in Michigan, Hillary, the only of the three frontrunners whose name appeared on the ballot, got 55 percent of the Democratic vote. Uncommitted (code for Edwards or Obama) got 40 percent.

You Vote Like a Girl

Madeline Holler — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 18:59:00 GMT

Oh, ladies! You fickle registered voters! You suffragists with a soft spot! Illogical! Emoooootional! So (once in a while) devoted to your Grrrl Power!

Late last week, many a written tear was shed over Hillary Clinton’s surprise win. Trails of mascara streaked down puffy-faced blogs and newspapers. The votes of many, many New Hampshire women came under close scrutiny and were resoundingly second-guessed. No WAY did all those gals want Hillary for president! Not for reals. These sweet, caring, sympathetic (read: female) babes just didn't want to see Clinton cry. :(

But don't worry, theorizer of the Grrrlfriend Posse – wherein a roving band of one asked our girl a personal question to get her all choked up. Settle down, those of you who suspect that the tears were forced. Not for a moment will Hillary's tearful, childish, emotional manipulation -- meant clearly to prey on the fairer American voter's biologically fickle nature and DNA-given perogative to change her mind -- send her to the White House. Barack Obama can easily reclaim the female half of the voting population -- what Political Nanny likes to think of as "voters-lite". Why?

Because Senator is fine!

We all know how seductive power can be to a straight woman. And when that power is bestowed in a man with those looks! With such skill holding babies! With these dance moves! Oh, get the smelling salts. Even Political Nanny is feeling light-headed.

What does all this mean? Well, if the female vote is as uncommitted/wavering/sympathetic/overly sensitive/tied to the heart as the press would have us thinking last week, it means Hillary Clinton is going to have to do a whole lot of crying – sobbing really – to hold on to their votes. It has nothing to do with the issues, or winning or political opinions of one's own. It's all about a passion for politics (if you get Political Nanny's drift). Barack is just THAT hot!

Let's hope, for Hillary's sake, that Barack doesn't pull out a handkerchief and dab at her cheeks when she schedules a meltdown in South Carolina. Oh, how the ladies in the voting booth will grab hold of his lever and start tugging!

What can the other candidates do to get a little of this girl action? Dennis Kucinich could stop making out with his hot wife! (She makes us feel ugly!) And John Edwards, well, he's got that sensitive man thing going. So, why not show us a little leg like Obama and shed a few tears like Clinton. Who knows what the picky voter chicks will go for next!

Ultrasound Canceled! It's Still the First Trimester

Madeline Holler — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:20:00 GMT

If only we could hold a sonogram wand against the belly of this election beast, the sex of the next president, and the size of his/her win, could be accurately predicted. But the campaigns are still developing, it's early in the race, and this election has crappy health insurance. We'll have to wait and count votes to see who actually emerges from the mess.

A tough lesson for those in the news business! Pundits and political writers relied on old wives' tales this week to try to predict the details of the nation's first primary before it was even over. They observed whether New Hampshire carried its primary low or high, they peed in glass jars and mixed it with Dran-O, they relied on polls that gave Barack Obama double-digit leads. Then they painted the nursery blue.

Boy, are they pissed. It’s a girl!

Why? How? Where did it all go so wrong?

For your very uncommitted, undecided Political Nanny, this aftermath of the "surprise" "comebacks" (well, maybe for McCain) in the New Hampshire primaries has been more fun than a baby shower with no games AND an open bar. Political Nanny hated all the frenzy and frothing at the mouth that followed Iowa and led up to New Hampshire. She’s hoping, audaciously, for a little more caution going into South Carolina and eventually to Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.

But the fun! The fun! Maureen Dowd, a die-hard Clinton-hater, bawled like a girl after the results and speculated that New Hampshire ladies sopped up Hillary’s tears with sympathy votes. We're laughing so hard we're crying, Maureen.

Others, like Salon’s Rebecca Traister, navigate us through the makings of an anti-Hillary pile-on. The details -- from prologue to postscript – are so compelling, you’ll never take a thing Chris Matthews says seriously again (not that you have for a verrrrrrry long time).

Politico offers this mea culpa and explanation for why journalists got it wrong. It’s refreshing in its candor, delightful in its self-loathing. A sample:

Our own publication, Politico, did its part in promoting several of these flimsy story lines. We used predictive language in stories. We amplified certain trends and muffled the caveat, which perhaps should be printed with every story, like a surgeon general’s warning: “We don’t know what will happen until voters vote.”

And for some nasty fun, watch the blooper videos from Slate. Be patient, Anderson Cooper looks like a total ass in the final clip (and why Gloria Borger keeps trying to make her point, we can only guess). The collection also includes an NBC correspondent's confession that, regarding Obama, it's difficult to be objective. Yikes!

You know, the gestation of an election is supposed to take some time. It’s not supposed to be decided by fewer than 1 million people (just under 800,000 to be more specific) in two different states. How ridiculous would it be to have all but one candidate drop out at this point – before the bulk of the country (remember, the population is over 300 million) could help narrow the field? How fat and swollen and pre-diabetic and endless and post-due would a general election feel in that case? Schedule an induction, STAT!

So, call the lab, cancel the next ultrasound, and have a little fun. Let’s take the presumed advice of an election midwife: eat right and drink plenty of fluids, exercise moderation, avoid polls and negative campaigning. Above all else, give the horse-race analysis a rest and try to enjoy this very special, very magical time that only happens once every four years of your life.

And now, a tribute, to a Political Nanny fave, Bill Richardson. He has withdrawn from his race for president. No, we never thought he’d actually make it to the White House (now THERE’S a prediction even Political Nanny feels was safe to make), but we liked him behind the microphone. In the most recent debate – the one right before the New Hampshire primaries – he was funny, smart, and able to get the discussion back to the issues. Even though he won’t be the Commander in Chief, we get the feeling he’ll nonetheless be moving to D.C. for a job about this time next year. Political Nanny will pack your toys and change of clothes, little Bill, and have them sent to you there.

Finally, this tidbit:

John Kerry has endorsed Barack Obama, not his former play- and running-mate John Edwards. On the one hand, that's sad for Edwards, on the other hand, does a Kerry endorsement have much weight? Hey, Political Nanny is just asking!

Photo: BBC.co.uk

Guess Who Ralph Nader Just Endorsed!

Madeline Holler — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 17:33:00 GMT

Who cares what the governor of New Hampshire thinks, right? Or the editor of Iowa's largest daily. Or, sorry to say, Sean Penn. Political Nanny listens to Political Nanny when it comes to who she'll vote for in the primaries.

Endorsements, with a couple of exceptions, just haven't been that interesting. Until now ...

Public citizen, consumer advocate, sometimes presidential candidate, one-time election spoiler, and Babble "Timeout" subject Ralph Nader made an endorsement, just in time for the Iowa caucuses. He's throwing his support to John Edwards.

We're no experts, so who knows whether Ralph is a good or bad playmate for John. But Political Nanny adores Ralph and respects his opinion. His support feels like a gut-check: she's long suspected John really means what he says and contrarians like Ralph are the first to smell the BS, yet he thinks John, for the most part, is the real deal.

From Politico:

Nader said he has watched Edwards from afar and sees his more pugilistic brand of populism as a "glimmer of hope."

"It's the only time I've heard a Democrat talk that way in a long time," Nader said, acknowledging what was, for him, a rare moment of praise for a Democratic leader.

"Iowa should decide which candidate stands for us," he added. "Edwards is at least highlighting day after day that the issue is who controls our country, big business or the people."

Not the most unflinching of endorsements -- indeed, he's used the endorsement mostly as a way to criticize Hillary for being too Republican. But what's notable is that it's not himself that he's endorsing. Can we assume he won't be making a bid? Or does that depend on whether John Edwards gets the Democratic nomination?

In any case, Political Nanny is excited that Ralph Nader has come out to play.

Second-Best Democrat Could Win Iowa

Madeline Holler — Sat, 24 Nov 2007 18:16:00 GMT

Like the runner-up in the 1984 Miss America pageant, the second-choice Democratic candidate in Iowa might end up winning the contest -- in this case, the state party's presidential nomination.

How? Secret nude photos of a top candidate?

Among the mysteries of Iowa and caucusing, is the math behind voter support and the fact that Democratic caucusers get to make a second-choice along with their first. So if a candidate doesn’t draw at least 15 percent of the voters at the caucus site -- remember, this is the church or school or community center in each precinct where self-appointed delegates meet, debate candidate platforms and then make their choice by standing in the corner designated for their favorite candidate -- the delegates get to go join the others under the sign of their second-fave.

So, those who like Chris Dodd may find themselves with few others once the doors close. If Dodd's counter calculates his group represents fewer than 15 percent in the room, the Dodd sign is pulled down, and those delegates hug good-bye and move to another candidate's group in the room.

In a recent poll, second-place preferences looks much like first: "34 percent of those voters would make Obama their second choice, 28 percent Edwards and 15 percent Clinton." But this also means Chris Dodd and Joe Biden and the rest of the Democratic candidates have a bit of influence, in that the top three also have to court them ... just in case.

While we’re talking about Iowa, let's go over the latest polls for first place and including Republicans who don’t have this second place back-up plan:

Hillary has slipped to 26 percent support from Democrats as Obama closed the gap at 30 percent. Edwards is still with 22 percent. But with this whole second-choice option, one wonders whether the difference in these numbers is terribly meaningful.

Dodd, who is behind even fourth-place runner Bill Richardson (11 percent), has been campaigning hard in Iowa, where he moved last month with his family. We'd like to know of their supporters, who the second-choice candidates are.

On to the GOP: Huckabee has really moved up in the polls and is almost even with front-runner Romney, thanks to support from the Iowa Christian conservatives.

The Iowa caucuses are Jan. 3, followed closely by New Hampshire primary Jan. 8. So as we chug along in this early, expensive election, the rest of the primary season picks up and moves fast. We are watching Iowa, and then New Hampshire and South Carolina so closely, because our state, California, doesn't hold a primary until February. While that's just around the corner, we know some will be knocked out and we're very curious who will be left.

Question: Have you made your pick, first or second place?

Decent Proposal? Your Right to Vote for an iPod

Madeline Holler — Mon, 19 Nov 2007 17:07:00 GMT

Political Nanny is leery of surveys using hypothetical scenarios, particularly when it involves a large percentage of (young and disaffected) respondents who may have never come close to experiencing those scenarios that are sketched out in the questionnaire.

A recent poll of 3,000 NYU students showed that the majority of them would trade their right to vote for varying levels of cash prizes and gifts. Half of them said they’d forfeit their right to vote forever for $1million (remember, this is Manhattan, that’s just not a tremendous amount of money), and 66 percent said they’d give it up for free tuition (see!).

Twenty percent said they’d cash the damn thing in for an iPod Touch. Rock the vote!

Almost all of the respondents who said they’d trade in their vote answered that they believe voting is “important” or “somewhat important.” That the vote could so easily be bought is, to Political Nanny, “sad” or “somewhat devastating.” Then again, many of the respondents have likely only recently gained the right. The thrill of the voting booth and election night jitters have yet to be understood by, perhaps, 66 percent of them.

One student who feels Political Nanny’s exasperation but over-reacts like Bush Administration legal counsel wrote on his questionnaire: "Anyone who'd sell his lifelong right to vote should be deported." But for that wacky Constitution!

Extra Cookie: Pollsters Who Lay Candidates Bare

Madeline Holler — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 12:32:00 GMT

Okay, we’re going to settle this president thing right now, the Australian way.

First, a little undressing. Of the candidates. In our minds. Now, who’s your fave? (Don’t you dare say Huckabee)

A polling group in Australia asked 1,200 voters which of the two candidates in the running for prime minister they’d most like to see naked. Now, we don’t know a Kevin Rudd from a John Howard (their current leader) but judging from this fully-clothed picture, neither is particularly appealing.

Oh, but we Americans, we're born to be eye-candy! It’s in our constitution. So a few extra cookies at snacktime go to those brilliant larikins Down Under who know how to lay bare the real issues of a nation's leadership.

So, who’s your naked pick? And, no, spouses are not in the full-frontal running. That bores us.