There have been countless speculations about the longevity of celebrity marriages from the tabloids at the checkout stand, gossip blogs to idle chit chat at the water cooler. Taking about the demise of celebrity marriages is one of those guilty pleasures many of us like to indulge in, and it’s easy to do since so many of them end in divorce. And while there have been guesses that there could be trouble in the Jada Pinkett and Will Smith household or that Katie Holmes and Tom Cruises’ marriage is just for appearances sake, smarty pants Garth Sundem along with the New York Times’ John Tierney — have used a formula to confront “one of the great unsolved mysteries in social science: Exactly how soon will a given celebrity marriage blow up?”
Now, you could just write this off as just a guessing game, but the thing is – Sundem and Tierney have a pretty good track record. Back in 2006 they made their first set of predictions, and they were spot on in many cases. How do they come to their conclusions? The “equation’s variables included the relative fame of the husband and wife, their ages, the length of their courtship, their marital history, and the sex-symbol factor.” The team created a chart – entitled “Til Math Do Us Part” – using their formula that predicted the length of some of today’s hottest stars.
So, which celebrities do they see not lasting? Check out the ten most doomed relationships and what the odds are that they won’t make it to their 15th anniversary according to Sundem and Tierney’s math right here (a countdown to most likely to breakup…and a couple may just surprise you!) :
Will Smith and Jada Pinkett Smith 1 of 1024% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
For the last year or so there have been a variety of rumors that this power couple was on the brink of a big breakup, but they actually came in 10th on the list of celebrity parents whose score put their marriage in danger.
Brian Austin Green and Megan Fox 2 of 1023% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
There are rumors that Megan Fox is pregnant with her first child with Brian Austin Green (who already is a dad from a previous relationship) let's hope their marriage survives their baby's formative years.
Matt Damon and Luciana Barroso 3 of 1021% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
It seems that they have a strong and sturdy relationship (with three kids plus Luciana's daughter from a previous relationship). But perhaps it's the difference in their fame - he's a star she is not - that puts them in the danger zone.
Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban 4 of 1016% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
The 16% is far better than the 3% odds that her marriage to Tom Cruise would last past 15 years, but still 16% ain't too good.
Alicia Keys and Swizz Beatz 5 of 1011% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
Things don't appear to bright for this couple according to the numbers. They got together under murky circumstances (his ex baby momma claims he cheated on her and then left her for Keys), so that may play into the math somehow.
Katie Holmes and Tom Cruise 6 of 1010% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
Many didn't count on TomKat lasting this long - no matter much they put on a show for the cameras. But to last until year 15? The odds are not in their favor.
Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner 7 of 109% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
This one makes me sad, not only did they just welcome their third child but Jennifer Garner is just so relatable.
LeAnn Rimes and Eddie Cibrian 8 of 108% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
Not that many are rooting for this marriage to last (like Real Housewives star and Eddie's ex Brandi Glanville) and they could be on to something. Their 8% odds aren't helping them out.
Mariah Carey and Nick Cannon 9 of 105% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
Yeah, 5% odds that they'll make it to their 15th anniversary - well those odds suck. And they have some pretty heavy stuff to deal with - not only do they have twins but Nick Cannon has serious health issues to contend with.
Jessica Simpson and Eric Johnson 10 of 101% Chance They'll Make it to Year 15
They haven't even gotten married yet and already their union is doomed!
Photos: PacificCoastNew.com and PR Photos