Do the Golden Globes Predict Oscar® Winners?Dresden Shumaker
The Golden Globes and the Oscars® are lumped in together when people think of film awards. But how connected are they? Do the Golden Globes predict Oscar® winners? Both shows feature celebrities decked out on red carpets, both shows have lavish televised broadcasts, and both shows can launch careers and increase the success of a film. Beyond that, the two shows and the two organizations responsible for the shows couldn’t be more different.
This Sunday night I will be live-blogging the Golden Globe awards here at Babble and delighting in every celebrity side-eye, missed cue, amazing gown, and perfect acceptance speech. The Golden Globes will be presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is a group of just over 90 international journalists. That’s it people: 90 journalists from around the world who, according to the HFPA website, “attend more than 300 interviews and countless movie and television screenings throughout each year.”
The Academy Awards (the Oscars®) will be happening on March 2nd. While the Globes are given for excellence in both TV and film, the Oscars® are strictly for film. So who makes up the Academy? If you had asked this question two years ago the answer would have been dismal. While the Academy has never published a complete list of all of its estimated 6,000 members, the Los Angeles Times conducted a survey and discovered that in 2012 the Academy was made up of old white guys.
“Oscar voters are nearly 94% Caucasian and 77% male, The Times found. Blacks are about 2% of the academy, and Latinos are less than 2%. Oscar voters have a median age of 62, the study showed. People younger than 50 constitute just 14% of the membership.”
In August of 2013 Cheryl Boone Isaacs was named the President of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (aka “The Academy”). Ms. Isaacs is the first African American to be elected as president. Ever. She is also the third woman to hold the office of President. Just before the announcement of her presidency was made, the Academy also announced it would be inviting 276 new members. If you take a quick scroll through the list you will instantly note the lack of old white guys. (Oh yes, Prince has been invited to join the Academy!)
Over the years many film enthusiasts have looked to the Golden Globes to see if a win would equate an Oscar® nomination or Oscar® win. This year the Golden Globes will be broadcast on January 12th. There will be four days which the winners will celebrate and cheer and then on the morning of January 16th the Academy Award nominations will be announced.
International Business Times did some calculations up to 2012 and I added in last year’s winners to come up with the percentage of Golden Globe winners who went on to win the Oscar®.
Based on these percentages you could say the Globes have a pretty decent track record for predicting who will win an Oscar®. What makes things tricky are the unique Globe categories. There is not simply a best actress or best actor; there are best actors and actresses within dramas or musicals/comedies. This system allows the Globes to honor many films and many players involved with a film. Last year the Globes nominated ten actresses for the top actress categories and the Academy nominated five.
At the core these shows are about celebrating achievements in entertainment. I love watching both of the shows, but usually find the Globes more entertaining and relaxed. The attendees sit at tables and enjoy a meal, libations flow, and TV and film stars mingle with each other. I also appreciate that the Globes give so much back to their community.
And did I mention Tina Fey and Amy Pohler are hosting the Globes this year? It’s going to be a BLAST! Come back here on Sunday for a complete play by play.
Image Credit: Wikipedia, author